2026-06-25 Trend Daily Report: Memory Chips Surge Against Weak Market, Middle East Geopolitics Becomes Key Variable
Today A-shares weakened overall with SSE All Share down 1.18%, but the memory chip/semiconductor sector saw structural explosion with Longke Technology hitting 20% limit-up. Middle East geopolitical escalation (Iranian missiles, Persian Gulf shipping tensions) became the greatest uncertainty, with capital flowing into defensive sectors. The Fed's hold-rate expectation is clear and banking sector remains resilient. Hong Kong hard tech leaders show H-share premium inversions versus A-shares, as global capital re-prices Chinese core assets.
I. Core Conclusions for Today
Today's A-share market showed a contraction in risk appetite overall. The SSE All Share Index fell 1.18% to 3,979.7 points, while the SSE Small & Mid Cap declined 1.39% to 5,437.02 points, reflecting weak market sentiment. The main themes centered on structural opportunities in the memory chip/semiconductor sector, energy corridor risks triggered by Middle East geopolitical tensions, and liquidity caution amid expectations of the Fed holding rates steady. Capital did not broadly diffuse but concentrated in defensive sectors (e.g., 180 Transport Index rose 0.61% against the trend) and select tech leaders. The greatest uncertainty stems from potential escalation of the Middle East situation (Israeli military detecting Iranian missiles, Persian Gulf shipping tensions) and its impact path on global risk assets.
II. Market Themes
Three core variables are being traded today: First, the structural reversal logic of the memory chip/semiconductor cycle — Longke Technology's 20% limit-up drove followers including Beijing Innosilicon, Yachuang Electronics, and Tongyou Technology, with domestic substitution叠加 industry recovery expectations forming a resonance. Second, escalating Middle East geopolitics — Israeli forces detected Iranian missile launches, the strategic importance of Port of Fujairah (outside the Strait of Hormuz) as an energy hub is rising, and fewer vessels are departing the Persian Gulf, pushing up shipping risks and tanker costs. Third, the Fed is highly likely to maintain rates unchanged given the complex geopolitical backdrop; annual stress tests confirmed large banks remain robust, temporarily resolving systemic banking risks. Should geopolitical tensions worsen further, capital may accelerate toward safe-haven assets like gold and crude oil. If memory chip fundamentals continue to validate, the tech sector could emerge as A-shares' independent main theme.
III. Key Asset Performance
A-Share Indices: SSE All Share 3,979.7 (-1.18%), SSE Dragonhead 3,531 (-0.42%), SSE Small & Mid 5,437.02 (-1.39%). Overall weakness, though 180 Transport Index rose 0.61%, signaling defensive positioning.
Hot Stocks: BOE A (6.43 RMB, +4.55%) ranked #1 on sentiment hot list; Leader Harmonic Drive (393 RMB, +20%) ranked #2. Memory chip sector broadly explosive. Huatian Technology (+10.02%), JCET (+3.65%) and other semiconductor packaging/testing stocks also active.
Hong Kong Stocks: Global capital is restructuring pricing logic for Chinese core assets. Hard tech leaders (Montage Technology, CATL, GigaDevice) are seeing H-share premiums vs. A-shares invert, reflecting foreign re-pricing of Chinese tech assets.
Macro Policy: Fed annual stress tests confirm large bank resilience; markets expect rates to hold. No near-term liquidity tightening risk.
IV. Chan Theory Structure Observation
BOE A (SZ000725) | Daily: Currently consolidating around 6.43 RMB with extremely high attention (#1 on sentiment list). A close above 6.50 could signal a third buy; a break below 6.00 support warrants caution of a pullback to the 5.80 RMB pivot.
Leader Harmonic Drive (SH688017) | Daily: 20% limit-up to 393 RMB represents a strong trend breakout. From a Chan Theory perspective, this is an acceleration segment upward — watch for top divergence. If 393 cannot hold, a pivot retreat to 360-370 is possible.
Longke Technology | Daily: 20% limit-up driving the memory chip sector — an event-driven pulse rally. Chan analysis requires distinguishing independent breakout from sector-following move. If Beijing Innosilicon and Yachuang fail to sustain momentum, a third sell point may form.
180 Transport Index | Daily: +0.61% gain in a weak market shows defensive character. Sustained hold above 740 could signal a bottom pivot breakout.
V. Events and Catalysts
Geopolitics: Israeli military detects Iranian missiles, Persian Gulf shipping tensions, Port of Fujairah strategic importance surging. Monitor crude prices, shipping indices, and insurance costs.
Fed Policy: Annual stress tests confirm large bank soundness; rate-hold expected. Stable liquidity environment in the near term.
Memory Chip Sector: Longke Technology 20% limit-up; Shengshi Technology, Yingxin Development, Taiji Industrial also limit-up; Beijing Innosilicon, Yachuang, Tongyou follow. Watch sustainability of semiconductor cycle reversal and domestic substitution thesis.
HK Pricing Restructuring: H-share premium inversion among hard tech leaders — Montage, CATL, GigaDevice breaking traditional A/H premium norms.
Pharma: Boehringer's weight-loss drug Survodutide shows positive trial results (visceral fat reduction 34%); monitor weight-loss drug supply chain.
UFC Litigation: McMahon and WWE settle investor lawsuit regarding UFC merger — event clearance.
VI. Risk Factors
Further Middle East escalation (Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz or conflict widening) could trigger sharp drawdowns in global risk assets, with A-shares unlikely to remain immune.
The memory chip sector's short-term surge (Longke 20cm limit-up, Leader Harmonic 20% limit-up) carries correction risk if industry fundamentals fail to validate.
While Fed rate-hold is consensus, geopolitical inflation pressures could compress H2 rate-cut space.
A-share turnover activity declining (SSE All Share volume 761 billion RMB); if market breadth continues deteriorating, index rebounds lack support.
Persistent H/A premium inversion may reflect structural shifts in foreign risk appetite for Chinese assets — watch for capital diversion effects.
VII. Tomorrow's Watch List
Middle East developments: aftermath of Iranian missile strikes, Strait of Hormuz shipping restoration.
Fed officials' speeches: any new rate guidance or policy signals.
Memory chip sector: whether Longke, Beijing Innosilicon, Yachuang sustain strength; capital diffusion.
BOE A: ability to hold above 6.50 RMB; sentiment persistence.
Leader Harmonic: whether 393 RMB holds; top divergence signals.
180 Transport Index: defensive sector outperformance continuity.
Northbound fund flows: foreign allocation shifts in hard tech H/A shares.
Boehringer weight-loss drug impact on related A-share supply chain.