2026-07-13 Trend Daily Report

I. Core Conclusions

Today's A-share market showed a coexistence of risk appetite contraction and structural divergence. The Shanghai Composite All-Share Index fell 1.18%, the Shanghai Small & Mid-Cap Index dropped 1.39%, while only defensive sectors like transportation showed modest gains, indicating capital rotation from growth to defensive positions. The main themes center on the short-term surge in the storage chip sector (Langke Technology hitting the 20% limit-up) and the structural reversal of hard-tech H-share premiums against A-shares — leaders like Montage Technology, CATL, and GigaDevice are breaking the long-standing 20%-40% A/H premium pattern, reflecting global capital's re-pricing of Chinese core assets. Geopolitically, the Israeli military detected Iranian missiles, heightening Middle East tensions, combined with incidents near the Fujairah hub, amplifying oil and safe-haven asset volatility. The greatest uncertainty lies in the Fed's policy path of holding rates steady amid complex geopolitics, and the unclear direction of A-share主力资金 given missing fund flow data.

II. Market Themes

The core variables traded today are dual themes: "geopolitical risk premium + hard-tech re-pricing." Geopolitically, the Israel-Iran conflict escalation has disrupted Persian Gulf shipping, raising concerns about energy supply chain disruptions and directly boosting oil and gold's safe-haven appeal. Industrially, hard-tech H-shares starting to command premiums over A-shares signals improved Hong Kong pricing efficiency and global capital recognition of Chinese hard-tech valuation anchors — if sustained, this will reshape the A/H premium convergence logic. The storage chip sector's short-term surge reflects continued reinforcement of the semiconductor cycle-up narrative, though its sustainability beyond individual limit-ups needs monitoring. If geopolitical risks ease, risk appetite may revert; conversely, if conflicts expand, defensive sectors and commodity safe-haven logic will strengthen further.

III. Key Asset Performance

A-Share Indices: Shanghai All-Share closed at 3,979.7, down 1.18% with 761 billion yuan turnover; Shanghai Leaders down 0.42%; Shanghai Small & Mid-Cap down 1.39%. The broader market is weak, with small/mid-caps under more pressure.

A-Share Sectors: The storage chip sector surged collectively — Langke Technology hit 20% limit-up, followed by Shengshi Technology, Taiji Industrial, Beijing Semiconductor, and others. Semiconductor packaging was active, with JCET up 3.65% and Hua Tian Technology previously hitting limit-up at #1 on sentiment rankings.

HK/Cross-Market: Hard-tech leaders show H-share vs A-share premium reversal — Montage Technology, CATL, and GigaDevice broke the long-standing A/H 20%-40% premium structure, signaling global capital restructuring Chinese core asset pricing.

Commodities/Safe Havens: Middle East escalation (Iran missile strikes on Israel, Persian Gulf tanker incidents) boosted oil and gold safe-haven demand. Fujairah's importance as a key hub outside the Strait of Hormuz has further increased.

IV. Chan Theory Structure Analysis

BOE-A (SZ000725) | Daily: Current price 6.43, up 4.55%, ranked #1 on sentiment. Structurally in a consolidation phase within an uptrend leg; if it holds above 6.40, this could be a third-buy candidate. Invalidated if it breaks below 6.00 support, indicating uptrend divergence.

Green Harmonic (SH688017) | Daily: Current price 393, up 20% (limit-up). In a strong short-term accelerated leg; Chan Theory perspective shows a new upward segment formed. Watch for top fractal divergence above 393 — if consecutive limit-ups are followed by heavy volume without price advance, this signals a third-sell.

JCET (SH600584) | Daily: Current price 83.1, up 3.65%. Part of the semiconductor packaging sector rally; structurally a follower leg within the sector's main uptrend. Key watch: whether 83.1 forms an effective breakout; a pullback below 80 would suggest continued central pivot oscillation.

Storage Chip Sector Overall | 30m/Daily: Langke's 20% limit-up drove sector sentiment, but Chan Theory requires confirmation that the sector index simultaneously breaks a new central pivot. If only individual leaders hit limit-up while the sector index fails to break prior highs, this is a divergence leg rather than an effective breakout.

V. Events and Catalysts

Geopolitical: Israeli military detected Iranian missiles; northern Israel sounded air raid alarms. Since US-Israel strikes on Iran began, Persian Gulf shipping has been restricted, highlighting Fujairah hub importance. These events directly boost oil and gold safe-haven demand.

Monetary Policy: Given current complex geopolitical backdrop, markets widely expect the Fed to hold rates steady to navigate external uncertainties.

Industrial: Langke Technology's 20% limit-up triggered a storage chip sector explosion — Shengshi Technology, Yingxin New Development, Taiji Industrial hit limit-up, with Beijing Semiconductor, Yachuang Electronics, Tongyou Technology among many storage concept stocks following.

Pricing Restructuring: Global capital is restructuring Chinese core asset pricing logic. Hard-tech H-shares showing premiums against A-shares — Montage Technology, CATL, GigaDevice leading the break of the long-standing A/H premium pattern.

Pharma: Boehringer Ingelheim's investigational weight-loss drug Survodutide achieved positive trial results — 34% visceral fat reduction, 63% liver fat reduction. The GLP-1 track remains highly watched.

VI. Risk Warnings

Geopolitical risk exceeds expectations: If Iran-Israel conflict expands to Gulf oil-producing nations, oil could spike, triggering systemic risk-asset selloffs.

Storage chip sector overheating: If Langke and other leaders cannot sustain volume after limit-ups, the sector may rapidly reverse, trapping late buyers.

Sustainability of H-share premium reversal: Currently limited to a few leaders — if not broadening, this may be merely阶段性 arbitrage.

Fed policy path changes: If subsequent inflation or employment data surprises, the Fed may abandon the "hold steady" expectation, causing sharp USD and Treasury yield swings.

Missing fund flow data: Current market fund flow samples show only dates without specific values, creating blind spots in determining主力资金 direction.

VII. Tomorrow's Watchlist

Track whether storage chip sector momentum spreads from individual limit-ups to broader sector sustainability (watch Beijing Semiconductor, Yachuang Electronics, Tongyou Technology).

Monitor whether H-share vs A-share premium reversal broadens to more names (Hong Kong listings of Montage Technology, CATL, GigaDevice).

Follow Middle East developments: Whether Iran-Israel conflict escalates further, and oil/gold联动 responses.

Track Fed official speeches and economic data to verify whether the "hold steady" expectation strengthens or weakens.

Monitor sentiment rankings: Whether BOE-A, Green Harmonic, JCET maintain top positions.

Watch for recovery of A-share fund flow data to determine true主力资金 direction.

VIII. Agent Independent Observation

Today's material window centers on early June 2026 (latest data through June 8), approximately one month behind the current date (July 13). Judgments are based on available data; actual market conditions may have changed significantly. Subsequent reviews should calibrate against the latest MyData data. The H-share premium reversal against A-shares is a structural signal worth long-term tracking, potentially indicating that pricing power for Chinese core assets is migrating from A-share unilateral pricing toward Hong Kong/global pricing.

IX. Compliance Statement

This report is market structure and public information analysis, constituting no investment advice. Markets carry inherent uncertainties; all judgments require independent decision-making based on personal risk tolerance, position management, and real-time data changes.